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- Russia has sent much of its Arctic forces to Ukraine, where they have taken a beating in combat.
- But NATO is bracing for these forces to eventually reconstitute, a top Norwegian officer said.
- Western militaries are using this period to train for a more dangerous Russia in the future.
Russian forces pulled from the Arctic to fight in Ukraine have suffered heavy losses on the battlefield, but NATO expects them to eventually rebuild, emerging as a "dangerous" challenge, a top Norwegian military official told Business Insider.
Vice Adm. Rune Andersen, chief of the Norwegian Joint Headquarters, said there is no "clear and immediate military threat" from Russia in the north right now. But, he warned, Moscow has plans to rebuild and expand their military once the fight in Ukraine ends.
"We are preparing for a more dangerous Russia," he said, adding that NATO needs to use this time well and make preparations.
Arctic security has become an important issue for the NATO alliance in recent years, as Western officials have grown increasingly concerned about Russia's expanded military footprint in the strategic region.
NATO leadership has called for greater investment in Arctic defense to counter Russian — and, more recently, Chinese — activity. Allied countries are increasingly taking steps to strengthen their posture in the High North, including through new deterrence operations.
Despite rising tensions between Russia and NATO, an Arctic conflict does not appear imminent, as Moscow remains focused on its war in Ukraine — a campaign that has come at tremendous cost.
Russia has pulled most of its forces from the strategic Kola Peninsula — a large swath of territory near Finland and a hub for its military and nuclear power in the Arctic — and sent them to Ukraine, where a lot of their troops have been killed in combat, Andersen said.
"Russia is bogged down in Ukraine," he added.
Experts at the RAND Corporation, a US global policy think tank, said in a report this week that Russia's decision to deploy resources from the High North to Ukraine has ultimately led to "the hollowing out of the country's Arctic-capable ground units."
"The conclusion of hostilities in Ukraine would allow Russia to reinvest in its military posture in the High North," they said.
Prepping for a more dangerous Russia
Russia's Arctic force presence has long been a concern for countries like Norway, where the threat is directly at their doorstep.
In the 2000s, Russia began returning to some Soviet-era Arctic bases, refurbishing airstrips and reopening facilities that had been closed during or after the Cold War, and in the late 2010s, Moscow launched more active submarine deployments from the Kola Peninsula, Andersen said.
Russia has also deployed missile defense systems, increased its aerial and maritime patrols, and ramped up its military exercises, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US think tank that tracks Arctic military activity.
While Russia's Arctic forces have taken a beating in Ukraine, leaving it less prepared in the region, NATO military planners are still acutely aware that there is potential for conflict down the road and are prepping for such a scenario.
"We are now in a time where we have an opportunity to focus on strengthening ourselves," Andersen said.
NATO allies are investing in technology and systems to help secure the Arctic, including additional surveillance capabilities, icebreakers, drones, satellites, and vehicles that can operate in the cold.
Allies have also expanded their footprint and increased the scale of their exercises in the Arctic to familiarize soldiers with the harsh realities of fighting so far north, where temperatures can kill just as easily as the enemy, and supply lines are vast and fragmented.
Next month, for instance, thousands of NATO troops will participate in the biennial Cold Response drills in northern Norway, which are designed to train soldiers for high-intensity combat operations in the Arctic. These would be crucial skills for Western forces if Russia eventually reinvests in its capabilities across the High North.
"You need to train here to be able to fight here," Andersen said. "In practical terms, it is those troops who have that training and that equipment who are relevant in the Arctic."
