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- The year-over-year inflation rate in November was 2.7%, much cooler than the 3.1% forecast.
- It's the first inflation report since the government shutdown. We won't have one for October.
- BLS published labor market data on Tuesday, bringing even more clarity to the previous murky data picture.
The year-over-year inflation rate slowed to 2.7% in November from September's 3%, the last month with data.
Economists expected a 3.1% rate, which would have been the highest since May 2024.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics won't be able to calculate an overall consumer price index for October 2025 because the government shutdown that lasted from October to roughly mid-November affected data collection.
Earlier this week, the BLS also published October and November job growth data, as well as last month's unemployment rate, providing more clarity to the state of the economy after a murky data picture due to delayed or canceled government data releases. This delayed report showed a mixed labor market, with better-than-expected job growth, unemployment above September's rate, and wage growth slowing.
Both reports will be helpful for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. Before the CPI release, CME FedWatch showed a roughly 75% chance that the Fed would hold rates steady, after three straight cuts, and about a 25% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. The Federal Open Market Committee members, who make the federal funds rate decision, won't meet again until January 27 and January 28, so they will have even more labor market and inflation information before then to make their call.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
